The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: China’s Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Among survey respondents, half said events in China would be a mild drag on the U.S. economy. More than one-third said that despite financial-market fluctuations, the impact on the real economy would be minimal. Three economists said China would be a significant drag, and four said a slowdown there actually would help the American economy.
So modest, in fact, that economists upgraded forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2015. Full-year GDP is expected to expand 2.4% this year, stronger than the previous estimate of 2.2%. But predictions for next year remain muted, with the consensus coming in at 2.6%, down a tick from the 2.7% in the August survey.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 9.97%; the average response in August was 9.84%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.4%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.47%
December 2016: 3.09%
December 2017: 3.56%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by StratX, LLC) post of September 11, 2015, titled “The September 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
StratX, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
StratX, LLC (stratxllc.com) is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.