The September 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 8, 2016. The headline is “Why So Few Economists Are Prepared to Say Recession Risks Are Fading.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Kevin Hassett and Joseph Sullivan recently documented that the U.S. enters recessions about twice as frequently in the year after a presidential election compared with all other years. Five of the last 11 recessions landed in that window. The National Bureau of Economic Research has estimated recession dates back to 1854. In that period, 41% of recessions have fallen in the time window that only comprises 25% of months (the year after an election, of course, comes every fourth year).
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.25%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 50%. For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 20.95%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.8%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.5%
December 2018: 4.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 1.75%
December 2017: 2.29%
December 2018: 2.70%
Please Note – The above is excerpted from the EconomicGreenfield.com (published by RevSD, LLC) post of September 8, 2016, titled “The September 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey”
RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with the views expressed by these outside parties.
RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future weak(ening) economic conditions, and offers businesses and other entities advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally adapt to such challenging, complex conditions.